Metroland Series: Crisis on Georgian Bay Part 2

No simple solution for complex Water problem
Oshawa This Week May 26 2013
The water level is definitely dropping, but it’s not quite time to do anything drastic, according to a wide range of official sources.
Everyone from high-level government officials to the authors of comprehensive scientific studies have advised a cautious, long-term approach when it comes to what to do about the record-low water levels present in Georgian Bay.
This is in stark contrast to the many property owners, municipal officials and businesses around the bay who have been demanding decisive action with growing urgency.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released some startling numbers in January that highlighted the historic nature of the problem. Lake Huron and Lake Michigan were recorded at their lowest ebb since recordkeeping began close to 100 years ago. (See graph.) The lakes were measured at 74 centimetres below their long-term average.
The new record low is 175.57 metres. The last time January water levels were close to that level was in 1965, when they reached 175.6 metres.
The group appointed to study the root cause of plummeting water levels, and what kind of action could remedy the problem, is the International Joint Commission (IJC). The commission has the responsibility of regulating bodies of water shared by Canada and the United States. It consists of representatives from both countries, and has the authority to set restrictions on anything that can affect the natural levels of shared water bodies like Lake Huron.
The commission regularly studies and makes recommendations. Major studies have recently been conducted on the problem of low water levels, and while they were filled with insights on the problem, none came back with the answers that many desperate property owners want to hear.
John Nevin, public affairs adviser for the Great Lakes regional office of the IJC, said the commissioners are well aware of the importance of the issue to many along Georgian Bay. In fact, when the commission called for input from the public, it received more than 3,000 comments that made up a stack of papers roughly a foot thick.
“So many people came out around Georgian Bay, and so many people were so passionate about the lake and about the health of the lake,” said Nevin.
“The fact there’s negative impacts of low levels being felt very strongly by not just people, but all living things around Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, meant that the commission wanted to take their time and make sure that they got this right. There’s so many issues to consider and so many variables.”
One of the key studies, and a major source currently informing the commission, is the International Upper Great Lakes Study.
Conducted by a team of more than 200 scientists, engineers, planners and technical experts on both sides of the border over the course of five years, the study is a comprehensive look at the past, present and potential future of the lakes.
Among a great number of recommendations and discoveries made through the study is that there are many factors that have contributed to Lake Huron’s decline over the years.
These include climate change, the decline in precipitation on and around the lake, and the erosion and dredging of the St. Clair River.
For many people demanding action on this issue, the findings around the St. Clair were the most interesting. As the river that drains Lake Huron, it has been singled out as a spot where the building of some sort of structure could have a measurable effect on the level of Georgian Bay.
Many cottagers blame dredging on the St. Clair River over the past 100 years as a key driver in Lake Huron’s loss of water.
Nevin and the study say they are partly right. There was about 40 centimetres of water loss due to the dredging, with an additional seven to 12 centimetres lost due to follow-up erosion.
However, the last dredging took place in the 1960s, and the report specifically noted that no significant erosion has occurred in the channel since at least 2000.
In fact, the study pointed out the trend is now in the opposite direction, with sediment starting to accumulate along the bottom of the channel.
One thing that has been discussed is installing giant barriers in the river to slow the outflow.
“The study board took a look at underwater speed bumps that are basically the size of a three-storey house,” said Nevin. “They’re concrete blocks that would be in place in the river and would slow the water.”
The study indicated such structures would likely restore anywhere from four to 25 centimetres, but there would be a downside.
For one, the giant blocks would likely sit right where lake sturgeon are known to spawn. Additionally, concrete blocks tend to be permanent, and more than one projection indicates there may be a need to lower Lake Huron levels one day.
“There are a number of scenarios possible that would have higher levels rather than lower ones,” said Nevin. “So another factor we have to take into consideration is, if you were to move forward with some sort of structure, be it fixed or flexible, it needs to be able to work and not damage users of the system when levels are high or low.”
The study pointed to climate change as being key to the change in levels. Nevin said this was the most extensive climate research ever conducted on the Great Lakes, and the only thing it made clear was that the future is uncertain.
One of the lesser-known factors is a process known as glacial isostatic adjustment, which is the Earth’s rebounding from being covered by massive glaciers thousands of years ago. The effect is particularly pronounced around the Georgian Bay area, especially when compared to several nearby American cities.
“When people come to our public meetings, they say, ‘The water line was at this rock by my dock when I was growing up, and now it’s far away from there.’ Well, say you’re around Parry Sound, that rock has moved by 12 centimetres in that time. As it appears to people in Georgian Bay, the levels are getting lower because of the movement of the Earth, but, if I live in Chicago or Milwaukee, it’s actually getting higher.”
In the latest series of recommendations, released by the IJC in April, the commission advised that any exploration of structural options should include options that would be able to provide relief during anticipated periods of high water levels, as well as low water levels. In other words, any kind of dam or speed bump should be flexible enough that its water-raising effects could be stopped in the event the water level goes the other way.
Al Douglas, director of the Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, said there are really six options for restoration of Lake Huron. The St. Clair River features prominently in those options, and many are relatively inexpensive and flexible, including variations on the underwater speed bump approach.
“Installing an inflatable flap that, in essence, acts like a floodgate is one option,” said Douglas. “It would be attached to a concrete base at the base of the arm, and they could raise or lower that to adjust the water levels and alter the flow through the river.”
However, not everyone believes structural options are the best way to solve the problem. When the IJC sent out its recommendations in April, there was a notable holdout on the commission who declined to sign the letter.
Lana Pollack, U.S. chair of the IJC, released a statement cautioning against raising false hopes that a structure in the St. Clair River would be sufficient to resolve low water levels.
“In her opinion, there is insufficient emphasis put on climate change and the need for government to support that and support adaptive management for the Great Lakes basin,” said Douglas. “She’s also worried that moving forward with the restoration efforts may cause harm, may not cause the change we hope, and could potentially cause harm in other parts of the lake.”
The issue is complex, and all of the currently proposed solutions are far from perfect. In fact, the one thing no one seems able to deny is that the problem is very real.
To see a full breakdown of the International Upper Great Lakes Study, including the recommendations that came out of it, visit www.iugls.org.

Plant and animal life suffer from loss of Georgian Bay wetlands
Falling water levels will have environmental impact, experts say
Oshawa This Week
Georgian Bay wetlands are considered the “gold standard” within the Great Lakes, but, as water levels continue to decrease, there are going to be impacts on such habitats and the wildlife that resides there.
“Research is showing … lower water levels are reducing the available wetland habitat,” said Becky Pollock, communication manager for the Georgian Bay Biosphere Reserve, a not-for-profit organization that carries out education and conservation projects over a 200-kilometre stretch of coastline from Port Severn north to the French River.
“Species like muskie and pike – the big ones recreational fishermen enjoy – are seeing that available habitat reduced,” she said, adding the impact is most keenly felt along coastal wetlands.
“Some areas on Georgian Bay are steep, rocky, shallow areas with lots of plants, and there’s a steep and deep dropoff,” she said. “It’s not like the plants can move with the water, so there could be a true loss of that area.”
Within those wetlands are a variety of habitats, added State of the Bay Project co-ordinator and environmental scientist David Bywater. Some of those will be more affected than others.
“As a result of low water levels, others will actually increase in area,” he said. “You have the low marsh and the high marsh, and they are very important for the fish habitat … A drop in that type of habitat there will have a big impact on available fish habitat, and that will influence and impact fish biology in terms of spawning grounds and feeding grounds.”
Bywater has been working in partnership with several other organizations preparing an environmental report card for east and north Georgian Bay.
“We’re picking six indicators and doing an analysis on them to give the public an idea of how their region is doing. It’s a way to engage with people on the bay about environmental health,” he said. “Overall, we know eastern Georgian Bay is in relatively good shape, but we do have some trends and pressures that are of concern (in Lake Huron).”
The report is expected to be complete and available to the public by early July.