Study finds enough development land for decades

News release from Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation July 20 2011

Developers, planners and environmentalists can all wave their “whitebelt” flag. A new study shows that the area between the Greenbelt and urban growth boundaries, nicknamed the “whitebelt”, contains enough land to accommodate development for several generations.

 

In fact, expansion plans for the next 20 years in the regions of Durham, York, Peel, Halton, and the City of Hamilton only allow use of approximately 17 per cent of the “whitebelt” for development. This leaves nearly 83 per cent of the “whitebelt”, or 120,000 acres of land, untouched until 2031 providing decades of land for housing, industrial and commercial development.

 “Some developers claim there isn’t enough land for development, but this study makes it clear there is enough land within the “whitebelt” far into the future,” said Burkhard Mausberg, President of the Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation. “This is a win, win situation for both developers and environmentalists, and there should be no pressure for urban expansion into the Greenbelt.”

 The study indicates that there is no evidence that the Greenbelt has caused so-called “leap frog” development, that is, growth of communities north and west of the Greenbelt to accommodate people who might have otherwise settled in communities along the Lake Ontario shoreline.

 As the Greenbelt Plan and Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe work in tandem, the study authors, Ray Tomalty and Bartek Komorowski of Smart Cities Research Services, provide suggestions to ensure effective implementation of the Growth Plan’s vision and principles. Recommendations include ways of supporting the development of compact and transit oriented communities with a variety of housing types.

Link to study Inside and out: Sustaining Ontario’s Greenbelt

AWARE Simcoe note

John Stillich of the Sustainable Urban Development Association issued a critique of the study by Smart Cities Research Services that found enormous acreages of ‘whitebelt’ or countryside land ready for urbanization.  

“The study estimates that 120,000 acres of the 145,000 countryside acres will be remaining for more urban/suburban expansion at 2031.

“My estimation is quite different, and I invite anyone interested to advise me where I have gone wrong.  It shows that growth will consume about 130,000 of rural lands by 2031. 

 GGH Growth 2009-2031 outside Toronto  

Population (per Hemson)  2,316,000   (per Places to Grow)  

Employment           974,000 (per Places to Grow)  

Total                           3,290,000 43% growth over 2006

Less intensification *             (660,474) (phased-in average to 2031)

Greenfield Development  2,629,526  

Likely density at                      50 jobs + residents per ha

Hectares lost                52,591   

   

Total Rural Lands Lost          526 sq. km.  

  Acreage equivalent = 129,853  

   

“This is an area roughly as large as Brampton + Mississauga, or  the City of Toronto.  

*  Based on 35% of residential units (phased-in to 40% by 2016) estimated to house 2.0 persons per unit, plus 5% of total employment growth as intensification

Rural Lands Lost excludes natural areas within urbanizing area.  

 “Perhaps the comparison in the Smart Cities Research study was not based on the Greater Golden Horseshoe.  Perhaps my intensification estimations or conversion rates are off.  I invite all comments.  If I am wrong, my apologies for creating unfounded worries.”