Growth stalled 3

Laurie Watt, Simcoe.com Oct 14, 2010
SIMCOE COUNTY – Jobs; affordable housing in revitalized communities; income for families, for businesses, for governments – all this is at risk.
That’s if Ontario doesn’t get the planning process working again in Simcoe County and Barrie, says an international real estate consulting agency.
The new reality will be in stark contrast to prosperity the area enjoyed from 1996 to 2005, when an average of 2,134 new homes were started each year in the Barrie market – an area StatsCan defines as Barrie, Innisfil and Springwater.
The decline began in 2005, though, and through to 2009 building activity dropped to 1,095 new units per year – a decrease of almost half.
That drop of 1,039 units per year was reported in September by the Altus Group, an international real-estate intelligence firm.
“… Decline predates the broader economic and housing market issues that affected the level of new housing construction in southern Ontario,” the firm says.
“The decline… is largely due to a shortage of developable residential land in the City of Barrie, which has reduced the supply of new housing and resulted in higher new home prices and decreased market choice.”
Even Barrie acknowledges this in the first phase of its Growth Management Study, which was finished in August. And at the present rate, the city won’t be able to meet the 2031 population target Ontario envisions for the city of 210,000 residents.
“An average of 1,290 new housing units per year is required over the 2006-2031 period to achieve the population forecast,” says Watson and Associates Economists.
Housing growth is expected to increase moderately from 2010 to 2015, up from a 20-year low in 2009. The firm forecasts the peak at 1,850 units per year from 2016 to 2020.
This is further complicated by applications for Midhurst, which serves as a northern bedroom for Barrie, as well as an employment hub for governments – education, the county and even the province.
Altus suggests part of the solution would be to enable Springwater to proceed with its Midhurst Secondary Plan – which could itself generate not only 400 new homes each year, but also a loss of 1,080 person years of work, $52 million in household income, housing-related purchases of $19 million per year, and another $13.6 million in retail spending each year.
With that plan caught in a logjam that includes Ontario Municipal Board appeals, Springwater says it’s out of lots – which further exacerbates a decline in building activity that began in 2007. That decline could translate into municipal job losses, as well as decreased development charge revenue.